Greece being the Bear Stearns of Europe, seems too big to be allowed to falter. Its financial circles depressed beyond control, Greece’s well-off cousins in the EU zone are pressed to come to its rescue. But despite the 110 billion euro bailout package offered to the country over the weekend, many fear that the aid could not do much to make Greece get a solid grip of its deepening and worsening financial position. With its paper downgraded to junk-value, the euro is placed in hot water and is now sitting on double-digit percentage losses for the year, and even longer if not managed. The bailout was never an indication that the euro crisis would end. In fact, it has just begun.
Everyone is well aware how easy it is to stir up the financial markets these days, but the Euro crisis is no longer a rumor of unknown provenance. And with the mighty euro’s fate in quite an uncertain position, investors have a growing fear on betting even a single cent on European sovereign bonds or on the euro itself. Greek had placed the entire European currency under intense pressure, but the bad management, careless spending and statistical cheating which caused the recent financial implosion it is now facing does not apply to the rest of the troubled countries in the eurozone like Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy.
Spanish prime minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, however, totally denies the possibility of being in the same position as Greece is in right now and despite their major deficit problem, doesn’t look at the their country’s fate leading up to requiring the same bailout package offered to Greece. But figures don’t lie. On the first few days of May 2010 alone, the value of euro plunged to a 14-month low of $1.25 on May 6. It struggled to climb back to $1.27, but it was trading below $1.28 on May 7 and many sees its direction to continue to drift downward. The euro was hovering to $1.2626 after it climbed by more than 1 percent earlier on that day. Analysts believe on the huge possibility that the euro could fall as low $1.10. With the financial markets losing faith in Europe’s capability of getting its debt crisis under control, it would be very likely.
On the evening of May 8, euro leaders agreed to set up a stabilization fund for its member countries and preserve the financial stability in their region. Such move is also done to defend the euro against possible “speculative attacks” by the time markets open on Monday. Still, investors do not see a clear solution to the crisis ahead. Given the current, fragile state of the financial markets, lack of confidence on the currency’s stability and their financial system in entirety is already rippling across the continents. Are you thinking about the euro likely to be doomed? Or perhaps if its days are even numbered? Many are. And these same people also believe we should feel sorry for Spain, Portugal, possibly Italy, and even Greece – - – for being ‘prisoners’ of the euro, eurozone’s single currency. Sounds like the beginning of a different debate, and honestly, any debate at this point has nothing good to offer.
At present, Greece proposed measures to clean up its mess which includes overhauling its tax system, implementing a freeze on hiring civil servants and setting up salary caps for the highly paid. It assured to bring its 12.7 percent budget deficit down to at least 8.7 percent in the first year of its 3-year aim of crackdown. Despite that, many strongly believe that the money pledged to Athens won’t even be enough to bridge the next three years. Not to forget that this is deemed as the largest bailout ever – - – just think how deep the trouble Greece is in. And it had dragged the entire eurozone into a crisis at this time when the region least needs one. Think about it, these 15 other eurozone countries will bailout Athens with bilateral loans, but they have huge debts themselves. It wouldn’t be new to think that they are also hoping that Berlin and IMF will come to their rescue, too. But the Greek bailout could cost Germany billions more than what has been publicly stated so far. And if Athens can’t pay back its loan, Berlin’s deficit could balloon in real terms by several billions.
Heat Felt Across the Globe
Europe’s ugliest moment looks like it wouldn’t stay confined in their own region. It is a lot more global than it looks. Since the stir started, the euro crisis had hit the financial markets across the board and threatened the general improvement in the global macroeconomic climate. Now inflicting collateral damage on Asia’s currency markets, the rest of the globe is now starting to feel the pain of the euro crisis.
Just as expected, there would still be some who has something to benefit from any bad thing that comes along. Applications for euro mortgages soared as borrowers are taking advantage of cheap rates while at the same time hoping to profit as the euro continues to weaken against other currencies like the pound and dollars. The cheap borrowing costs resulted for some to take out big mortgages just as how the current cheap prices of Greek bonds in the recent weeks resulted to large purchases. It’s difficult to make judgments if the bailout could pacify the situation or worsen things in the long run, yet it is the quickest seen solution for the moment to prevent the falter of Greece and work its way to recovery. That, we have the next three years to prove their judgment right or wrong.
It has not yet blown into a global crisis, but let’s all cross our fingers they could get things within control. But it’s always wise to prepare for the uncertain. Having an emergency fund could come in really handy if things get tough and may help you stay afloat when the situation calls for emergency measures. See? Planning our personal finances is always necessary in any circumstance. Remember, whatever financial trouble the globe comes across with, it affects every single individual in it. Go figure.
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